Greece, Austerity, the Greek Government and its Lenders...

...and the saga continues.

In a repeat episode, Greece's lenders commonly referred to as "the Troika" are in deadlock with Greece's government over purported further austerity to cover a still lingering deficit in the 2014 budget: the hole is 2.5 bill Euro according to the Lenders, 0.5 according to the Greek government that claims it will bridge the remaining 2 bill from tax evaders and structural reforms. As neother of these have been dealt with in the past 6 years, the lenders are unsure as to why the Greek government will raise money from tax evaders who seem to be either existent or so good at what they do there is no indication that they are ready to give up their "evader" status.

Hence "deadlock". The lenders say "you have not implemented any structural reform to write back home about, so why should I reasonably expect you to do so now, all of a sudden?" Also, you have not succeeded in increasing cash inflows through clamping on tax evasion, so why would it work now? Or, maybe it (loss of tax revenue) is not as high as it is presented?

"Better turn to austerity measures," allegedly say the Lenders.

This deadlock comes at a particularly inopportune moment, as these are the moments the EU budget goes to vote -- and it would have been nice to have aid-Greece all settled and tucked away.


 It would seem, yet again, that the unflinching, faceless, humorless, cold-heart apparatchiks of the "Troika" (i.e. the EU, ECB, IMF), many of whom, be it noted and not surprisingly, are Greek are the ones requesting more austerity measures. The Greek government is said to be resisting, claiming the people cannot take any more.

Truth be told,however,  in 6 years of austerity, Greece's successive governments  have done little to promote structural reforms and  reduce the huge Public Sector. They have not even reigned in the Public Sector Union which, along with the Communist Party,  regaled in siphoning much of the latest European social  funding.

Accordingly, the Troika seem to have given up on the idea that the Greek politicians will ever touch the backbone of contemporary Greek establishment: the Civil Service and its Union. Which is a pity, because Greece needs reforms and "the bad guys who imposed said reforms" that serve as the eternal excuse will not be around forever...

Contentious items are, inter alia: foreclosure on homes, complete restructure of the labour law, privatisations; not easy to tell people that they are likely to loose their home to the bank -- especially in a country that boasts 29% unemployment so, no job no mortgage payment, and a singularly investment-averse fiscal legislation so, no new jobs and no little chance of recovery and finding a new job.

• Clamp down on tax evasion. A succession of Greek governments have made this their patriotic target -- but no cigar. Be that as it may, one important element in the hunt for tax-evading money What I mean is, the expected inflow depends on who is included in the "tax evader" category: for example,there are ~22.000 contractors wishing to close their books who are unfortunately in arrears in their payments to the social security. Pending payments, they cannot close their books and of course, the debt compounds (because their books are not closed).
  Presumably, if these ~22.000 self-employed contractors could spare the money, they would have regularized their payments to the social security organisation. Since they have not, at the expense of increasing their debt, we can safely assume they do not have any money to offer... 
• Structural reform, Public Sector... So unlikely, we can join the Troika who do not believe it is going to happen any time soon.

Which leaves one thing: more austerity for the Private Sector in Greece, retirees, unemployed, social benefits...

Any takers?