The Elusive Randomness of Fortune

Nothing new here, not a new story at all. Some are born with it and some are born without. Of the latter, some grow into it, marry into it or actually build it, and others remain the same. And most fall soemwhere in-between.

"It" being Fortune of course. Whatever way we look at it, the apparent randomness is there; for (like me) it is right before me but elusive because I cannot seem to be able to grasp it firmly in my hands. And yet it's there, I it.

I rarely think of those for whom, in my eyes, i.e. visibly, it's far away. Take the Syrians, for example, or low income Afghans, both living in fear. There are many others. Take my neighbours, the ones I do not know who may be strugglingto make it financially, through this month.

I (and most of us, I'm sure) think of my other neighbour, the one who fell in love and married that fantastic resourceful  girl: together they have amassed enough to not worry about the future and they look happy together. Very happy. Or yet another neighbour, the one who married that tall thin, beautiful woman with perfect manner, daughter of a very. very auto industrialist...

Most of us think in terms of what we do not have, and much of what we think we do not have comes to our mind through comparison, rather than intrinsic need. We compare ourselves to, the seemingly fortunate, others and feel they're just one of us -- in all respects but one: the ultimate turn of fortune.


And this makes me think:

If all the people living under a jurisdiction of sorts - say a country - were brainwashed into thinking that everyone lived equally badly, would they just sit back and bear it? Especially if they were told that people outside that commuinity or jurisdiction, or country, lived even worse and are heading head-on for a major melt-down?
After all, a comforting lie is alsways a comfort first and a lie second.

Comfort trumps sincerety.

I think these people would.Maybe that is the example of Cuba, the case of Nazi Germany and of the first Soviet era and even, in more subtle ways, take the case of Greece and France, for example; for example, Greece is run by (allegedly) corrupt and visibly weak governments, their present one being a fascist-left wing coalition that has gone back on all its declarations and promises, one that has openly declared that journalists have too much freedom and that the people should be protected from the internet. France has a Socialist President whose popularity has reached historical lows, a government that has never openly lied but is not doing much better in popularity and, when said government proposed to reform retirement and dramatically change tax laws -- all hell broke loose. They took most of it back.
In Greece, taxes & contributions are a record setting 67%, doing business is "punished" (as one minister  - G Kyritsis said), an  additional 26% tax was insituted aimed at contractors, lower-scale pensions were further lowered and... nothing happened. The people jsut bear it. Is it the fear of even worse or is it the comfort of basking in soothing lies. Who knows?

One thing is for sure: another neighbour, one who fell in love and married a very wealthy young lady is very happy with his, equally radiant, wife. They didn't buy it. They live in London UK. Another friend, a beautiful young lady who married a very rich (self-made) man also didn't buy it: they are living in Luxambourg where their son is very happy at the international school.

So, when the French don;t buy it, they revolt. When the Greeks don't buy... they prefer to believe the lie that is fed -- or leave.






One up for being born into, or marrying money: if you don't buy the spiel you can alsways go elsewhere. Much easier than a revolution or bearing it while you're screwed over.

The Greece Conundrum - Or Why Is It A Country Consciously Builds Its Desctruction -- In Two Sentences

A little over one month ago, after a bogus referendum (see below) on a non-existent issue, The  Telegraph published a monumentally titled and subtitled article:

"Greece has been taken hostage by a government disguising its incompetence as heroism

Desperate suffering awaits a people who have chosen easy lies over uncomfortable truths"

 

This says it all!

Greece's present government has, in 7 months of mind numbing posturing, idiotic experimentation, and debilitating mismanagement (and some nepotism), plunged Greece into abysmal depths of recession never before seen with such rapidity since the country's modern inception in the early 19th century. So much so, that previous Greek governments -- amongst the world's most inefficient, corrupt, and savagely self-serving -- seem not so bad after all! 

Greece has gone from: 

- a slight positive balance of payments to capital flight (83 B euro) and capital controls

- a mediocre educational system -- despite a high teacher - to - student ratio (13:1) -- to a worse educational system, by design. The education minister of Greece announced that excellence in education is a malady.

- having four relatively capitalized banks operating with chances of surviving the storm - to a banking system reduced to nothingness in one week of stock exchange operation;

- the collapse of the Athens Stock exchange

- a recession-driving new bail-out agreement

...while back at the ranch, the government and its cronies are fighting over what is the comrade-correct thing to do: sleep with the beard under the sheet or over?

If there ever has been a case of mass debilitation, this is it.

And it is contained elegantly and in sufficiency within those two lines.

I think that Greeks do not believe they deserve what they have. So they destroy it to reach the lower level of what they think they justly deserve.

It's a pity.

If they opened their eyes they may have seen that reality is unconscionably brutal about itself: it is, without shades, of grey or otherwise.

If Greeks opened their eyes they may have noticed, or some of them at least, that deserve does not come into the equation: you have what you have, and when you have it you can lose it just as well.

You cannot lose what you do not have and pride is just as much part of it as anything else.

A view from inside a pool at the top of the rock at Kaladi, isle of Kythera, Greece.

Whatever Greeks do or, more likely, choose to NOT do, they should read this short article. Better still, reading being a strain to the eye, someone should read it to them over national television and radio...

Greeks Excel In the Face of Adversity...

This is what Dr C Constantinides, founder of Healthcare cybernetics (HCC), wrote in his recent answer to a comment in the IMTJ.  Dr Constantinides is one of the world gurus n Health Tourism.

Interestingly, the commentator maintained that the crisis may have made Greece's foray in the Health Tourism sector more difficult; Dr Constantinides showed that the exact opposite is true. In so doing he relays a positive message, one which is a breath of fresh air after so much doom being aired about the country which, even if imminent, would be better left alone: if doom is at the door, let's enjoy the minutes of life now until it breaks through!

Dr Constantinides' response  is interesting but one point in particular stood out: "Greeks excel in the face of adversity".
Lately, Greeks (as represented by the Greek government) have distinguished themselves in creating adversity (rather than responding to it) so I thought to myself: would the creation of common adversity it be a national trigger to inspire creativity and love of life in Greece.

As the Gods of the Greeks and market research, both know, Greeks are amongst the least happy (or most unhappy?) of Europeans. They may have reason to be, but the point is: could a adversity be the key to a nationwide snapping-out-of-it?


Let's hope so.

I am presently in Athens, the weather is good (hot but cool in the shade), recent winds have cleared the sky of pollution, the colours are magnificent.

If adversity can help preserve this, long live adversity! And long live the Germans, the bad guys of choice in Greece at this moment who fuel this adversity!

Paradoxical Collective Behaviour of Greeks Today -- or Why My Dutch Friend Was Wrong

...He rarely is.
Also he is most polite and reserved and rarely judgemental.


What are three strange traits that may confuse us if we travel or live in Greece today.

I don't mean, voting a not-so-complimentary-for-the-country, party to power (rude with a predilection of doing anything that goes against the grain -- any grain, to the extent of proposing to free from prison  a serial killer, for "humanitarian reasons" etc)


A) being rude = being assertive



B) being antisocial & unhelpful = being free
Example: a bunch of trouble-makers are allowed to demonstrate to the detriment of the community, block the highway, or forbid entry to cruise-ships; the community, the country as a whole suffers. Likewise,

C) being polite to a stranger = servility


What else can one say other than, offer Greece group therapy and send them the bill  (because psychoanalysis needs commitment).

Sullen, Disgruntled and Resentful

... is how a Dutch person living in Greece described the country's ruling party's so called "extreme left-wing" politicians.

Like typical bullies,indignant because they have not had their way; "just imagine" he said, "imagine you give the bullies the power and the responsibilities of the school principal"! This is surely how they wil behave."

He proffered the example of  the minister for education who publicly stated that the pursuit of excellence (and progress) is a sickness. Again, in the same ministry, the minister appointed new regional educational supervisors, all from the party (syriza). Other ministers declare "... we will tear Europe to bits..." and "jihad is not to be excluded if they (european partners) do not do what we want...".

If this is really the case, and Greece's ruling people are a pack of disgruntled, self-serving bullies,  Greece is in urgent need of a few very dynamic parents who can bring these bullies to order.

Or the will sink the ship further, beyond salvation.

Small Cash-Flow Problem... Brother, can you spare a dime?

Nothing the Germans cannot handle -- or anyone else, for that matter; the Greek government aren't choosers... Loans are welcome from all sides.

Hellenic Republic
The Prime Minister
 15 March 2015

To the Chancellor of the Federal

Republic of Germany, Mrs Angela Merkel

Dear Chancellor,

I am writing to you to express my deep concern about developments since the 20th February 2015 Eurogroup agreement, which was preceded two days earlier by a letter from our Minister of Finance outlining a number of issues that the Eurogroup ought to resolve; issues which I consider to be important, including the need:

(a)     To agree the mutually acceptable financial and administrative terms the implementation of which, in collaboration with the institutions, will stabilise Greece's fiscal position, attain appropriate primary fiscal surpluses, guarantee debt stability and assist in the attainment of fiscal targets for 2015 that take into account the present economic situation.

(b)    To allow the European Central Bank to re-introduce the waiver in accordance with its procedures and regulations.

(c)   To commence work between the technical teams on a possible new Contract for Recovery and Development that the Greek authorities envisage between Greece, Europe and the International Monetary Fund, to follow the current Agreement

(d)    To discuss means of enacting the November 2012 Eurogroup decision regarding possible further debt measures and assistance for implementation after the completion of the extended Agreement and as part of the follow-up Contract.

Based on the in-principle acceptance of this letter and its content, the President of the Eurogroup convened the 20th February meeting which reached a unanimous decision expressed in a communique. The latter constitutes a new framework for the relationship between Greece, its partners, and the institutions.

More precisely, the 20th February Eurogroup agreement stipulated a number of points outlining this new framework and process, including:

(a)   The Greek authorities will present a first list of reform measures, based on the current arrangement, by the end of Monday February 23. The institutions will provide a first view whether this is sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the review. This list will be further specified and then agreed with the institutions by the end of April.

(b)   The Greek authorities have expressed their strong commitment to a broader and deeper structural reform process aimed at durably improving growth and employment prospects, ensuring stability and resilience of the financial sector and enhancing social fairness. The authorities commit to implementing long overdue reforms to tackle corruption and tax evasion, and improving the efficiency of the public sector. In this context, the Greek authorities undertake to make best use of the continued provision of technical assistance.

(c)   We remain committed to provide adequate support to Greece until it has regained full market access as long as it honours its commitments within the agreed framework.

Based on this common ground, the Minister of Finance sent to the President of the Eurogroup a letter, dated 23^th February 2015, with the aforementioned "first list of reforms" [see (a) above] proposed by our government. On 24^th February 2015 the said "first list" was accepted by the institutions as "sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point for a successful conclusion of the review" by 20^th April 2015.

In order to expedite the process, the Ministry of Finance sent a letter to the President of the Eurogroup on 5^rd March 2015 urging that the process of technical discussions on specifying further the "first list of reforms" begin immediately. In the same letter the Minister of Finance attached seven examples of how the reforms in the "first list" could be developed and specified further.

Following a positive reply by the President of the Eurogroup (dated 6^1h March 2015) and the subsequent Eurogroup meeting of 9^th March 2015, the first round of discussions of the Brussels Group  (comprising of the four institutions — EC-ECB-ESM­IMF — plus the technical team of the Greek government) took place, in Brussels, on Wednesday 11^th March dealing with both political and technical issues. At that meeting it was also decided that technical teams of the institutions would travel to Athens on the following day for on-site fact-finding to assist the Brussels Group negotiations.

In the context of the above, I feel it is critical to alert you to a number of developments which are either undermining the spirit of the agreements reached or making their fulfillment perilously difficult.

a) On 4^th February 2015 the European Central Bank lifted the waiver for minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic, while declaring that the waiver would be restored when an agreement was reached at the level of the Eurogroup. Moreover, even since the Greek banks were referred to the Bank of Greece's ELA facility, the ECB has been raising the ELA's ceiling at shorter intervals than normal and at rather small increments that incite speculation and spread uncertainty vis-à-vis Greece's banking system. Additionally, the ECB determined that Greek banks cannot hold more T-bills than they did on 18^th February 2015, thus restricting their participation to well below the T-bill cap. (Please note that, in the summer of 2012, when a new Athens government was in a similar situation to ours. ELA was being expanded generously, the T-bill issuance cap was lifted to allow the government to finance its debt repayments to our creditors, and banks were not restricted to any limit corresponding to a prior date's holdings. In that manner the government of the time and the Eurogroup were granted sufficient 'space' to reach an arrangement that allowed the Greek banks to move away from ELA and back to normal ECB financing methods.)

b) Following past failures (of the previous government) to complete the scheduled reviews, disbursements under the loan agreements with the ESM-EFSF were discontinued (while those of the IMF were similarly delayed), yielding a substantial financing gap in 2014 and 2015. This includes the profits from the ECB's SMP-sourced bond redemptions, which the ECB distributes to member states on the understanding that they be passed onto the Greek government.

Given that Greece has no access to money markets, and also in view of the 'spikes' in our debt repayment obligations during the Spring and Summer of 2015 (primarily to the IMF), it ought to be clear that the ECB's special restrictions [see (a) above] when combined with the disbursement delays [see (b) above] would make it impossible for any government to service its debt obligations. Servicing these repayments through internal resources alone would, indeed, lead to a sharp deterioration in the already depressed Greek social economy — a prospect that I will not countenance.

Meanwhile, I also regret to report that little progress has been made in the negotiations between the technical teams in Brussels and in Athens. The reason for the extremely slow progress is that the institutions' technical teams, as well as some of the actors at a higher level, seem to show little regard for the 20^th February Eurogroup agreement and are, instead, committed to proceeding along the lines of the Memorandum of Understanding that pre-dates both the 20^th February agreement and 25^th January 2015 — the date on which the Greek people elected a new government with a mandate to negotiating the new process established by the 20^th February Eurogroup agreement. It is difficult to believe that our partners consider that a successful reform drive can be carried out under such restrictive and pressing constraints, including the financial squeeze that my government is currently labouring under .

The Greek government remains steadfast in its commitment to fulfill its obligations
to its partners within the framework of the 18th February letter and 20^th February

Eurogroup decision. However, I am also obliged to make clear to you that, in order to continue to fulfill our obligations, as we have done up till now, progress has to be made on a number of fronts:

(a)   After the 20^th February Eurogroup agreement and the approval of the extension of the MFAFA by member states, and given that the technical discussions with the institutions are under way, the ECB should return the terms of finance of the Greek banks to their pre-4^th February 2015 state.

(b)   The process by which the reforms proposed by the Greek government, and their evaluation, must be immediately clarified so as to make a successful conclusion of the review by end of April 2015, as well as to specify the recommencement of disbursements with th e progress of the negotiations.

(c)   The process must be specified (as well as the participants and the timetable) by which further arrangements (which my government would like to take the form of a 'Contract for Greece's Recovery and Development' — including provisions on Greece's public debt in the spirit of the November 2012 Eurogroup agreement) will be agreed to before the end of June 2015.

In conclusion, Greece is committed to fulfilling its obligations in good faith and close cooperation with its partners. To this purpose we are committed fully to the process specified in the 20^th February Eurogroup agreement so as to begin immediately the work of implementing reforms crucial to our economy's prospects of long term development within an inclusive Europe. With this letter I am urging you not to allow a small cash flow issue, and a certain 'institutional inertia', to not turn into a large problem for Greece and for Europe.

Alex Tsipras

In other words, "sister can you spare a dime"?

Or two?

Elections in Greece: "Against Someone Else" Wins

All the Elections posts have to begin with the same disclaimer:
On the 25th January, Greeks voted overwhelmingly against their previous government remaining in power.
The against vote comes as no surprise and is largely justified. That government imposed austerity measures with the counter-promise of reform. The result? Little reform, an overwhelming public sector, 1.55 million unemployed *(the 5th highest in the world)...
In other words, 270 bill euro in aid, austerity, unemployment and... not much good to show for it.

Of course, Greece is better off now than it was 3 years ago, for sure. But not better enough...



Back to the question of whom the voters opted for: why Syriza?
The underlying message from many Syriza sympathisers had more to do with the German chancellor: "we can do it".

We voted the for guy no-one wants!


Just to prove to everyone that we can do it.

A happy camper: A. Tsipras, the leader of Greece's "radical left" party that won the Jan 2015 elections.

 Mr Tsipras, the new Prime Minister has oft mentioned Greece's pride and dignity. He has also spoken out against austerity, for and against the EU, for and against the EMU, for and against raising taxes, for and against a score of other things...*

Let's hope Greece doesn't lose whatever is left of its dignity during his rule.





*interestingly, he too campaigned against austerity. In this respect, he promised to re-hire all civil servants who are out of a job (very few), abolish cuts to public spending (medical, pensions, etc) summing to an estimated total of euro +3 bill/ quarter. Greece is still operating under deficit, so where is the money coming from???
Wait! It must be from the those Germans, the ones we voted against...!