Wednesday, 4 February 2015

Greece: one of the most authoritarian countries today -- in market terms

In a recent article at the Washington Post, Matt O'Brien, a reporter for Wonkblog covering economic affairs, discussed whether Greece might actually leave the Euro. This is a nightmare for most Greeks (latest polls show 75% of people asked wish to remain within the EU).

It may be a nightmare for the other EU countries too, although it would seem that the ECB at least, is ready for such eventuality.

As O'Brien notes, the problem is manifold, but mainly the fact that Syriza is missing the vital point.

If Syriza were interested in the country rather than in a media catching first 100 days, they would take note, inter alia, that:
* not only is the Greek ruling party (Syriza) a self-proclaimed centralised economy ideologist, the government also comprises extremist right-wing members.
* not only is the "iconoclastic" duo of the Prime Minister & the (abominably clad) finance minister trying to draw attention by being somewhat undiplomatic, without much to show further - yet.
* Greece is lobbying for a renegotiation of the actual debt -- i.e. they are barking up the wrong tree: Greece should be asking for even lower interest rates - even approaching 0 and a much longer grace period and an even longer payback period...
* the Greek economic model of the past decades has obviously failed miserably if we are to believe the miserable condition the country is in;
this so called "model" consists of a heavily centralised economy, private initiative frowned upon (it can take anything from 8 months to forever to obtain a license to expand a production unit), the unproductive public sector payrol is huge (1.17 million souls), purportedly corruption is high, taxes are amongst the highest in Europe while the offerings are very low; education rates below the global average.
* Syriza has proposed to grow the public sector, to stop or reverse privatisations, to raise minimum wage, to put an end to flexible employment, and to raise taxes even more.

There is more, but these come to mind readily.

Considering that over-regulation, lack of freedom to do business, the bloated and self-serving unions, the bloated and client-based public sector (each ruling party would recruit their own, in addition to the previous party's cronies), etc ad nauseam, brought the country to the present situation, it is hardly encouraging that the new ruling party in Greece is proposing to do more of the same...

As Matt O'Brien notes in beautiful style: "It would need Greece to cut more regulations if it's going to cut less spending. There should be no shortage of things to do, since Greece's markets are the reason the word "sclerotic" exists." Quite so. In the global indicator of taxation benefits to investment, Greece ranks 141/144


Greece's extreme right-wing and outspoken Golden Dawn came third in the recent elections, surpassing the commonsensical "Potami", and this should be something to take seriously into account.

And at some point somewhere, someone has to point out that:
1) austerity in Greece was imposed because of the crisis the country brought upon itself -- not the other way round.
2) some of the measures taken by the Greek government came in exchange for reforms that had been agreed with the lenders but were never implemented: drastic curbing of the public sector is one of these. Not surprisingly, Greece's government efficiency ranks rock bottom (131/144).


In order to save the public sector payroll the Greek government preferred to impose misery with 35% of the population living in poverty according to the national & oecd statistics.


More's the pity: most if not all of the measures and reforms initially agreed are necessary for the good of the country. Arguably, Greece would have been out of the rut, had its government implemented reform instead of raw austerity.

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