Now That The Noise Has Died, Anything To Propose? I'm the Investor What Is Your Plan?

...Other than balderdash in, admittedly, well-structured English.

Greece's ruling party, Syriza, is "anti-capitalist", centrally controlled economy and anti-elitist. This is no secret, the party members have said so in so many words many times in the past. Accordingly, now that the party is in power, its generals have promisedto recruit back civil servants who had been let go to reduce state payroll, to withdraw the distinction from the country's top schools (rather than try to inspire other schools to follow in their footsteps) and stop privatisations and concessions (airports, etc). Among many other things: raise minimum salaries,overturn some flexibility in the labour market introduced in recent years, etc.

All these are consistent with the party's communist publicly declared leanings.

These are also consistent with the slight rise in unemployment in January 2015. Greece has the 5th highest unemployment rate worldwide and the highest in youth unemployment: 54-63% (no-one seems sure of how much it actually is).


After coming to power with the help of right-wing activists, Syriza proceeded to "put its actions where its mouth was" and launched a noise campaign in the EU asking for an "end to austerity" and requested to negotiate a new programme which would lead the country out of its financial straits and make the astronomical debt serviceable.
(The debt is now over 180% of GDP, so it is, to all intents & purposes, unserviceable).
So, the country's premier, A Tsipras and its Finance Minister -- whose command of English is excellent and who can put together a coherent sentence in that language with extended vocabulary -- launched a noise campaign: non aggressive, polite and apologetic but firm in the principles.

Not bad especially for the media part & the public relations. Much of it was for local consumption, but in the beginning it worked and earned them international awareness as well.


Now that the noise has died down, that the Eurogroup has made numerous proposals  and time is running out, the point Greece's envoys are making is still the same: we cannot accept an austerity plan that brings misery, etc etc.

OK, what is it you do propose?
(Other than a total debt write off?)

The answer is, nothing.

Greece's Syriza has no plan, no blueprint and no concrete proposal to bring to the table.


In a well written article, Yiannis Varoufakis, Greece's English- savvy Finance minister in a well written article in the NYT :
"...No more loans — not until we have a credible plan for growing the economy in order to repay those loans, help the middle class get back on its feet and address the hideous humanitarian crisis. No more “reform” programs that target poor pensioners and family-owned pharmacies while leaving large-scale corruption untouched..."

Who could put it better???

 Except for four things:

a) How will you help the middle class get back on its feet with centralised economy and an inefficient investment and private enterprise averse government. It is against your party's self-proclaimed philosophy. Or by raising taxes even further, as announced...

b) Where will you get the funding to achieve this, and does growing the already bloated public sector go in the above direction?

 c) Combating corruption, supporting private enterprise, simplifying bureaucracy, getting ride of "nuisance" 3rd party taxes (small amounts inserted into PPC bills, employers cost, etc), reducing the Public Sector, etc are all part of the initial memorandum Greece signed.
Much of what is deplored, justly, such as the poor pensioners, etc. were not part of any memorandum or EU agenda. They are part of the Greek government's own agenda. These are measures taken by the Greek government in exchange for NOT implementing certain reforms: opening closed professions and reducing the Public Sector payroll are two such reforms, initially agreed upon but never actually tackled.



So where's the drift between Greece and its partners?

Who knows.

Maybe: in the ruling party's communication strategy aimed at internal consumption. Otherwise, there is nothing anyone would want more than to do just what friend Varoufakis wrote.

Maybe: because Greece's leaders have a positioning of opposition to all until the others come up with a good enough plan. That they have no plan is obvious to all but the Greeks themselves (but that is no surprise as Greek media all tow the party line).

OK, but how do you know when the plan is good?

That is an easy one: when the plan proposed allows you to offer kickbacks to your cronies.

...and this all leads us to d):
What exactly are you going to do to "...get the middle class back on its feet", "eradicate corruption", etc. 
In other words, "I'm with you: what specific measures are you going to take and how much money do you need to do take them?"

Of course, there is no answer to. Not yet, anyway. Which is why Greece's government is asking for a 6 months' extension: not to implement reform, but to define what it is going to do. (And maybe get its cronies out of the way of reform.)


BUT
When all is said and done, Greece's Syriza has an unique opportunity in its hands to do some good for the country.

While doing good for the country has rarely been the obvious top item in Greek politicians' agenda, Syriza would have little to lose and something to gain; they will go down in posterity as having done something and, while they are sure to lose future elections and power, it's not as if they will starve. MP pensions in Greece are very generous and the current campaign is sure to land Varoufakis a superb job anyway.


HOW?
Syriza controls the vociferous few, professional demonstrators & union cronies, who customarily demonstrate against...

These are people who can and have put aside national considerations and solidarity in the name of being negative: blocking ports in the height of the tourist season thereby killing local tourism economy, locking out factories in protest against the dismissal of a man suspected of theft, who supported civil servants found guilty of misuse and abuse...


Accordingly, they can just as well put aside matters of political solidarity and campaign in favour of reorms that no-one has ever touched:
- fight corruption (in Greece mostly within the Public Sector)
- reduce the Public Sector payroll
- open closed professions
- etc...

They are very few and very noisy, so their support does not cost much. But they, with the help of subservient media can do the trick. And blame it on others, as Greek politicians are always wont to do.

The most unlikely people could make the most needed difference for the country. Will they?

There is hope yet, but given Greece's political past, and politicians' indifference to their country as a whole, the hope is remote.

Sometimes, Making A Lot of Noise May Actually Get You Somewhere: Greece's latest media stars, Tsipras & Varoufakis

Alexis Tsipras, the newly elected prime minister of Greece.




Greece's new government has spent much of its time since it was sworn in, end of January, in creating noise and stirring a lot of media content about Greece's debt renegotiation.
The ploy worked in Greece where many good willing voters, hoodwinked into believing they are being oppressed by the bad guys (who are foreign and probably speak German), see the prime minister & his corollary, the finance minister (Varoufakis) as so many David putting up a fight against Goliath.

Except that here, Goliath is the one who saved David for 4 years in the running...

So, after walking the walk, now is time for the two indigenous Greek heroes to come to some serious talk.

Which they won't of course, because they probably have no idea of what to ask for; The plan stopped at the media show.

Fortunately for them, and especially for the Greeks they (and other Greek politicians as well) duped into voting for into power, Greece's europartners know what to do. And, fortunately for all, they will show the way and everyone will be happy: lower the weight of servicing the debt, maybe reschedule (i.e. erase) parts of it in the future, and rename the troika, and forget about the programme and rename it as growth programme instead... but there is more.


What Greece's two media stars have achieved is no less considerable:

a) Greece is in the news and for some time now, and we all know there is no bad publicity. If Greece where a free business country, this would have been a business growth opportunity of unprecedented potential. But it isn't, so too bad.

b) Also, they have stirred some life -- albeit, by discomforting -- into Europe's somewhat stuffy, conservative governance. And that is never a bad thing: it gets the blood flowing. And it is a kickstart for the future, where Europe will have to wake up, big time!
Not that Greece's currently ruling party are staunch and flexible democrats, themselves -- they aren't. Syriza proponents have publicly declared that whoever is not for their beliefs is against them...

c) In a perverse fashion, they may help Germany get some of its good will back: Germans have been sticklers for austerity and austerity has not worked in Greece mainly because Greece never implemented the reforms (reduce public payrol, open closed professions, simplify business start-up, allow business funding, etc) that could have helped the country improve its situation as a whole. But then, Greece's governments have been more prone to support cronyism and pressure groups rather than  the nation.

d) In an even more perverse way, Greece's new government envoys have done a very basic and simple thing: they talked to their partners on normal terms, at arm's length. Which is not a bad thing: it seems that previous Greek government envoys felt unable to put together a coherent sentence that puts forth some request on behalf of their nation.

e) They seem to be enjoying themselves: finally out of mother's crutches, they can let themselves go! It is a positive attitude, and thus being preferable to gravitas.


So, in what must be the most perverse twist, it is Marxists (does "marxist" sell under vintage or antique??) that have made the most successful noise for Greece! This probably says as much about Greece's other politicians as it says about anything else!


However, now is the time for David to stop shooting himself in the foot and wherever else the stone hits him.
If they want to do something useful for their country -- which will not cost them anything after all -- Messrs Tsipras & Baroufakis are well advised to:
* quickly conceive and fine-tune their agenda. Baroufakis will have to do that, the other gentleman being little more than decorative;
* listen to what the others have to say, and judge wisely. Now is the time to negotiate well and in a firm but friendly manner;
* take a deep breath and implement some reform in Greece. The country will never become a real adult unless it sheds its pestilential mismanagement and scapegoat attitude to its own inadequacies.

Again, the result hinges upon Mr Baroufakis' ability to act. All mr Tsipras has to do is smile politely and support his colleague, even if he doesn't quite understand what it is all about.

Listen to the guy on your left.

And for goodness sake, kill the sartorial failure!

Greece: one of the most authoritarian countries today -- in market terms

In a recent article at the Washington Post, Matt O'Brien, a reporter for Wonkblog covering economic affairs, discussed whether Greece might actually leave the Euro. This is a nightmare for most Greeks (latest polls show 75% of people asked wish to remain within the EU).

It may be a nightmare for the other EU countries too, although it would seem that the ECB at least, is ready for such eventuality.

As O'Brien notes, the problem is manifold, but mainly the fact that Syriza is missing the vital point.

If Syriza were interested in the country rather than in a media catching first 100 days, they would take note, inter alia, that:
* not only is the Greek ruling party (Syriza) a self-proclaimed centralised economy ideologist, the government also comprises extremist right-wing members.
* not only is the "iconoclastic" duo of the Prime Minister & the (abominably clad) finance minister trying to draw attention by being somewhat undiplomatic, without much to show further - yet.
* Greece is lobbying for a renegotiation of the actual debt -- i.e. they are barking up the wrong tree: Greece should be asking for even lower interest rates - even approaching 0 and a much longer grace period and an even longer payback period...
* the Greek economic model of the past decades has obviously failed miserably if we are to believe the miserable condition the country is in;
this so called "model" consists of a heavily centralised economy, private initiative frowned upon (it can take anything from 8 months to forever to obtain a license to expand a production unit), the unproductive public sector payrol is huge (1.17 million souls), purportedly corruption is high, taxes are amongst the highest in Europe while the offerings are very low; education rates below the global average.
* Syriza has proposed to grow the public sector, to stop or reverse privatisations, to raise minimum wage, to put an end to flexible employment, and to raise taxes even more.

There is more, but these come to mind readily.

Considering that over-regulation, lack of freedom to do business, the bloated and self-serving unions, the bloated and client-based public sector (each ruling party would recruit their own, in addition to the previous party's cronies), etc ad nauseam, brought the country to the present situation, it is hardly encouraging that the new ruling party in Greece is proposing to do more of the same...

As Matt O'Brien notes in beautiful style: "It would need Greece to cut more regulations if it's going to cut less spending. There should be no shortage of things to do, since Greece's markets are the reason the word "sclerotic" exists." Quite so. In the global indicator of taxation benefits to investment, Greece ranks 141/144


Greece's extreme right-wing and outspoken Golden Dawn came third in the recent elections, surpassing the commonsensical "Potami", and this should be something to take seriously into account.

And at some point somewhere, someone has to point out that:
1) austerity in Greece was imposed because of the crisis the country brought upon itself -- not the other way round.
2) some of the measures taken by the Greek government came in exchange for reforms that had been agreed with the lenders but were never implemented: drastic curbing of the public sector is one of these. Not surprisingly, Greece's government efficiency ranks rock bottom (131/144).


In order to save the public sector payroll the Greek government preferred to impose misery with 35% of the population living in poverty according to the national & oecd statistics.


More's the pity: most if not all of the measures and reforms initially agreed are necessary for the good of the country. Arguably, Greece would have been out of the rut, had its government implemented reform instead of raw austerity.

Elections in Greece: Vote Not for The Same. The voters' ticking factors.

On the 25th January, Greeks voted overwhelmingly against their previous government remaining in power.
The against vote comes as no surprise and is justified if one looks at what Greeks have gone through - albeit, not a very judicious one at this moment.
That government imposed austerity measures with the counter-promise of reform. The result? Little reform, an overwhelming public sector, 1.55 million unemployed *(the 5th highest in the world)...
In other words, 270 bill euro in aid, austerity, unemployment and... not much good to show for it.

Of course, Greece is better off now than it was 3 years ago, for sure. But not better enough...



But what makes voting Greeks tick???

On two separate occasions I happened to discuss voters in Greece with two University professors, both candidates, both subsequently voted into office.

These were short chats, rather than lengthy discussions, but none the less informative and inspiring.
I understood that the outcome of elections ion Greece is largely influenced by four factors:

ignorance: a large part of the population is unusually ignorant of key financial and economical parametres and unaware of the mechanics of public finance. This is markedly visible across the board with students at all disciplines.

television: as anywhere in the world until now. The Greek particularity is that there is no challenge from the media. Probably because Greek journalists themselves suffer from the same ignorance -- whatever the case, no-one has ever provided a tough challenge to a politician, live, on television. Unless of course, it is a person officially rejected, i.e. right-wing. And never has anyone ever questioned "left-wing" politicians.

left wing is religion: its declarations are to be believed in, rather than accepted through rational thought. All others are infidels.

emotion: as opposed to rational, or slightly critical thought... Or even pragmatism.


Henceforth, it is easy to understand that manipulating Greece's vote can be an easy job for a crafty player. Such as the late Mr A Papandreou, a US citizen of Greek descent who succeeded in hoodwinking the electorate for numerous elections up until his death. A true master if there ever was one!

Elections in Greece: "Against Someone Else" Wins

All the Elections posts have to begin with the same disclaimer:
On the 25th January, Greeks voted overwhelmingly against their previous government remaining in power.
The against vote comes as no surprise and is largely justified. That government imposed austerity measures with the counter-promise of reform. The result? Little reform, an overwhelming public sector, 1.55 million unemployed *(the 5th highest in the world)...
In other words, 270 bill euro in aid, austerity, unemployment and... not much good to show for it.

Of course, Greece is better off now than it was 3 years ago, for sure. But not better enough...



Back to the question of whom the voters opted for: why Syriza?
The underlying message from many Syriza sympathisers had more to do with the German chancellor: "we can do it".

We voted the for guy no-one wants!


Just to prove to everyone that we can do it.

A happy camper: A. Tsipras, the leader of Greece's "radical left" party that won the Jan 2015 elections.

 Mr Tsipras, the new Prime Minister has oft mentioned Greece's pride and dignity. He has also spoken out against austerity, for and against the EU, for and against the EMU, for and against raising taxes, for and against a score of other things...*

Let's hope Greece doesn't lose whatever is left of its dignity during his rule.





*interestingly, he too campaigned against austerity. In this respect, he promised to re-hire all civil servants who are out of a job (very few), abolish cuts to public spending (medical, pensions, etc) summing to an estimated total of euro +3 bill/ quarter. Greece is still operating under deficit, so where is the money coming from???
Wait! It must be from the those Germans, the ones we voted against...!

Elections In Greece -- Yet Again: If In Doubt, Vote Dogmatically, Against Someone Else (to pull his nose), or just Follow Your Heart

I have been trying to understand why it is in Greece that elections are a much like a football game, where serious issues do not really count, the nation doesn't really count, what is better or worse for said nation doesn't really count...

In other words, a critically large portion of voters in Greece do not vote rationally at all!

How is this?

There are two-three points which makes sense out of this erratic and nationally self-destructive behaviour -- i.e. to be partisan behind politicians who have demonstrably sunk the country, and OR have abundantly demonstrated they are grossly incapable of performing any job, let alone running a country.

1st: Greeks vote left-wing for emotional reasons, because their "heart is on the left" or simply because such is their "style" mostly new-romantic.  Typical image of the "girl offering a policeman the rose". Any other consideration -- policy, proposed measures, etc -- does not enter the picture at all.
Then there are those that vote their personal choice of "left"because that is right thing. This vote is dogmatic.
Coming to think of it, the politicians representing most "left" wing parties are as dogmatic and intolerant as their religious counterparts in the middle ages.

2nd: Greeks voting sort-of right wing are pragmatist. They believe in what politicians are supposed to represent: free enterprise,  conservatism, EU membership... the usual "democratic" freedoms espoused in the wealthy countries of first world. The fact that these politicians have fallen short of implementing their convictions when in action does not daunt these voters. "Other choices are even worse", they say.

3rd There is the spattering of Greeks who choose to vote AGAINST someone, come what may. These are easily swayed one way or another by anyone who has the knack of manipulating Greek voters correctly; the erstwhile premier of the 80s Mr A. Papandreou (now deceased) was masterful in this. The present, not as masterful leader of the deter-left party, a Mr Tsipras, is donning the style of the aforementioned Papandreou's to the fullest extent and to unparalleled success! The old ruse works!!

Of course there are those who simply vote for strict personal gain and get their hands in the till (see Pasok in recent years or Syriza now). But these alone do not an election win.*


So, elections in Greece in recent years are not about what is better or perceived as such for the country, nation: in fact Greeks are not hot about their "nation" believing for some strange reason that any reference to "nation" is a vestige of the right wing, which is definitely not trendy and generally unacceptable.

Elections in Greece are mostly about the three points above, and which one prevails - or combination thereof prevail.



Greeks are used to voting, after all democracy is a greek word as is the institution, both direct and indirect democracy. Greeks are also used to voting as a means to decide on issues and have been doing so for a few millennia already.

So, in the end, these elections are, yet again, all about having a bit of fun and tomorrow politicians will flock into the TV stations, well-connected market-research companies will have their 15 mins of free TV fame, and in particular, home delivery restaurants will do great business!


For anyone who is not Greek but knows and is interested in the country, it is all very charming and fun.
Woe betide those who are...





*Case in point: in the 2004 elections where a pragmatist and serious campaign led the centre-right party (Nea Democratia) to power by a very large marginby local standards). However that party did not act upon its promise and that was the last time Greeks voted with anything even remotely resembling common-sense.

Elections in Greece -- a New Party in Power

Let's us hope that they are not really the bunch of illiterate, uncouth, bullshitting conmen they seem to be during the pre-electoral period.

At the end of the day, they may just be full of sh*t, making wild declarations and accusations, something of a parody of the archetypal Latin American dictator-revolutionary...

That they are imperiously indifference to their country's fate is a given: they wouldn't have insitgated elections at the moment, had they been interested in their nation.

In fatc, nation is a much forgotten word in Greece.
Forgotten by the politicians, most of whom have a "left-wing babble disorder".

After all, Greece has an authoritarian left-wing regime.

Greek Elections: Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité.. Greek style

Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité  is the motto of the French Republic. It is also the feed for hope worldwide.

Many countries have in one way or another adopted something similar, Haiti exactly the same.

In essence these three words are the quintessence of modern day cohabitation and, to a large extent, they can be seen reflected in the global community:
liberte: I can speak freely, to anyone, to the world (well, most of the time, anyway...)
egalite: we are equal -- just check this when you are on-line, say even in a bog standard forum; we are equal!
fraternite: when an e-friend was undergoing a major operation, I wrote mentioned it online. Hundreds wrote back to say they are praying, thinking and supporting! Not important, you say, what counts is the doctor who performed the operation (open heart surgery).
Wrong: the patient was reading all of this, his courage rose sky-high. It is no small thing to know that someone half way around the world is thinking of you...

Speaking with a friend, he claimed that in Greece, this motto has been abandoned politically. Whether it was ever a la une is unknown. "Suffice it to say" he said "that it certainly does not apply in this hard-line stalinist Soviet country":

liberte: OK, no problem, as long as you say what we prefer, OR no-one listens to you (whereby, say whatever you like). Liberte of action is less open: business etc is grudgingly tolerated, small-scale. For large scale, the politicians in power must be made privy and party to the project and expect part of the action.
egalite: there is us and them. Politicians in Greece and civil servants are allowed to receive kickbacks. For the rest of the population, this practise is called fraud. Politicians are also unaccountable for their actions, which makes things even more pleasant. So egalite only for politicians, between them.
fraternite: you kidding me???? The spoils are for me, my close family, and friends, all within the political establishment. There is us and the rest. Fraternite... really!



An interesting view on the present day of the country that invented democracy and which, in the year 2k had near-triple the per capita of its huge neighbour, an empire not so long ago (Turkey).

Now Greece is distinguished by the 5th highest worldwide unemployment rate, it has received the largest amount of foreign aid ever recorded in the world history, it has numerous opportunities for growth yet chooses to elect a prime minister whose conduct and declarations remind us more of parodied African chieftains than a contemporary leader of the western world.

The only consolation for contemporary Greeks is to look back at what their country once used to be.

Happy New Year?

Let's hope so.

For some, this year started out very badly: it is their last.

Words pale, fail to express raw horror. And my vocabulary is poor.

For others, like us, still here to witness the horror, life goes on.
We are the lucky ones.