Monday, 3 August 2009

On the Road to....


...nowhere.

An news entertainment channel, "CNN", has been posting an "On the road to recovery" logo for some time now. Presumably the idea is that some of the optimism will rub off on people -- and things will be hunky-dory yet again. Wishful thinking?

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, as people flock off to (the) sea and summer respite from all worries, the Greek government is paying lip-service to what happens when September comes. After all, history has it that, left alone, problems are apt to resolve themselves.

Well, not to put too fine a point on it, but the present stock of Greek politicians is no better speculating on a fledgling economy than the transport authority is in planning trolley schedules -- and that ain't saying much.

For a country with low industrial activity and a very small proletariat, i.e. lower vulnerability to the crisis, Greece has made an amazing mess of its finances; GDP is dropping slightly (check out OECD for interesting figures) while debt is flirting with 13%. Official unemployment is 10%. By the way, the good thing about unemployment statistics Greek style is, they do not account for people not registered with the unemployment agency. Thus, statistically at least, the country is doing better than it actually is...

The problem is not the actual mess -- but that this mess now shows. For years, Greece has survived on cooking reports or, simply, looking better than she actually was; after all, paraitre rather than etre is something of a cornerstone of for contemporary "grecity".

The problem here is that a crisis is real life as opposed to socio-impressionist comedies that are played in a social context...

We expect the crisis to be perpetuated in Greece due to the government's immediate need for cash -- thereby pulling money out of the market and starving the economy of cash... Hopefully, and by divine intervention, this will go away magically by October. If it does not, then only the global economy recovery (or Chinese lackey money) will save the day.


For those of us who have children, lets stop whining and consider the following very brief stories:
a) a 34yr old woman and mother of one, a marketer by trade, suddenly dissapeared from the Greek job market. The reason? Her husband, a MD, was offered a position by NHS and moved to Scotland. She quickly followed suit. I spoke to her in Aberdeen and she said in no uncertain terms, "excepting the sun factor, life is far better here: we have good schools, nice people, mothers take turns in baby sitting the children, we go out during the week (!), and the incmoe is more than enough for us to live on. We may not be rich, but we are peaceful and quiet. I'll be back for 10 days' holiday mext year..."

b) A businessman, active in the hi-tech defense sector, is aiming his company toward international sales. These now account for 25% of his company's turn-over. His sector is certainly not hit by this (or any other) crisis. Last week we met over a coffee and he declared "45% is the magical number". "For what", I asked. "At 45% income from abroad, I'm moving out". "Where to?" "I don't know yet. But with my wife we are preparing our move putting money aside and studying countries. With two small children to raise, Greece seems too complicated a country; no planning ahead is possible, governments constantly change their minds and the rules, schools are either too expensive or too shoddy, brain-drain seems to be on the rise..." But you've never lived abroad before!" "So what. I'll learn. I'll start again, it's not the end of the world..."


Ανδρών επιφανών πάσα γη... οίκος

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