Tuesday 23 November 2010

AND, the show goes on...

Previously, on "The Greek resistance (to its sovereign debt)": the Socialist government offers to protect its citizens against more austerity; municipal elections are fought; the light at the end of the Socialist tunnel is announced headily.
In the following episode, season II, of the TV series, a bout of heavy vocalising breaks out after the elections. The Greek Socialist government defends its position as promised to the People (a government that keeps its promises even if it doesn't) and fighting breaks out with multiple announcements from various Socialist ministers bandying chaff on TV & the press.
Despite the efforts, the powers that be, the demons, are not appeased -- the IMF /EU demons.

All Public Sector jobs will be saved, all nationalised companies salaries will be kept. At the expense of the Private sector -- but it's a dirty job and someone's got to pay for it!

It's going down like a charm!

Whether or not Greeks fall for the sod-all amorality of their politicians -- their politicians revel in their insouciance.

Never has so much bullshit been bandied by so few, as is done today in Greek politics, by the Greek political oligarchy!

And "democracy" is originally a Greek word?
But then, so is autocracy and foolocracy (φαυλοκρατία)!

It's from the latter two that Greece suffers, not the former.

Thursday 18 November 2010

Invest in Greece (the oldie but goldie, in its latest guise)

This time round, Greece's socialist government took their non-socialist predecessors' version and remastered it (using music industry lingo) as their own product:
* fast track for strategic investors
* special treatment

OK. It's a lot like the music industry's "best of" rehashes.

A) So the way to putting up my money is now paved with less red tape - presumably.
B) Equally presumable, is that money can be made, other investments bearing testimony to this fact -- albeit, the last foreign investment took place a very long time ago...

What else am I looking at as an incoming investor?

1) Setting up a company in Greece is a relatively painless, if lengthy, procedure for a socialist and business averse country.

2) License. Extremely difficult to obtain. Very costly. Even costlier if one wishes to accelerate the procedure: kickbacks have to be distributed to civil servants from numerous agencies & ministries. Briefly, this is the way it goes: you set up the company, employ the people (as required often by law), and file for the license. Filing requires a large number of documents and controls by numerous government agencies; the need for some of these documents surfaces unexpectedly along the way.
Meanwhile, the company must be already set up -- after all, who is to receive the license if not the company?

As an example, licensing a photovoltaic park may take anywhere from a minimum of 22 months to eternity.
Licensing a temporary employment agency, 24-36 months.
In all cases, the money required is deposited and the company set up...

The delays above can be shortened if the investor appoints a top level Greek politician as partner -- but that is an added cost in and of itself.
Of course there are simpler cases: opening a small importing business or a small shop (non-food, non-pharma, non-medical sector), for example. But then, you are not a strategic investor, are you?

In other words, the motto to strategic investors is, "we welcome your money, pay up front please". "Now, what else do you want?"

3) People. Greece has a healthy executive market with a good 14% of the population holding some sort of university degree. Salaries tend to be high compared to most other countries, especially at mid and high management level. At entry level, minimum income is reasonably low at 800 euro, but certain professions (e.g. engineers, accountants...) and industry sectors (e.g. banking) command higher bases. There is also a plethora of statutory "bonuses" in addition to the set base. One of the best is the "degree" bonus: anyone holding a uni degree is entitled by law to 20% extra on account of that degree.

This excellent incentive dates back to the Public Sector in the 50s where it was offered to attract more qualified personnel.

4) Labour law and regulations and reporting. Labour law in Greece is extremely complex, while the reporting (much of it in hard copy still) is repetitive, time consuming and compulsory -- strict fines apply for delays.
There are few on-site controls, but such as they are they usually entail a fine -- just for good measure. The fine can later be taken to administrative court and annulled.
Of course, a faster settlement method is the kickback: less hassle, no fine just a small consideration.
Complexity is evident in day-to-day operation and requires commensurate extra personnel and bonding with local labour authorities to keep up. As an example, a sales rep must have the recruitment card on him during working hours -- or a fine can apply. An extraordinary change in a shift must be recorded and submitted to proper authorities in advance (how, since it is by definition "unexpected")?


5) Taxation changes annually. Mostly, the changes from one year to the other are small, nevertheless keeping up requires the services of an experienced fiscal consultant.

6) Capital markets: as Franklin Templeton recently became one of the largest independent investors at Athens Stock Exchange, making the case for capital investment in Greece.
True, taxation has risen from 10% on capital gains, to 40%; on the bright side, however, none of the above 1-4 apply if capital are your markets and you MUST invest in Greece.

After this wordy report... the watch-phrase seems to be:

Investing in Greece? Watch for the hiding!
Exception: ONLY if the investment does NOT require operation, does NOT involve buildings, does not require recruiting people. So,
* Invest in Greece only in non-productive projects, capital markets, real estate.

Wednesday 17 November 2010

Bullshit talks, money walks: Greece's socialist government

The Greek minister of "competitiveness", could aptly change his name from Goldson to Behappy-son: he announced an expected free fall in the country's inflation from near 6% today to around 2,5% tomorrow. He "sees" this coming.
Wow, isn't that good to know! Although actual inflation is rising, we can all smile and pretend it isn't!

On the other hand, what can you do when you're given the job of "Minister of competitiveness" -- in Greece, of all places. The only communist paradise on earth and, more specifically, a country where competitive, profit, are bad words in the ears of the powers that be. Poor man!

Meanwhile, the Germans are pissed at the Greek Premier's poetic scolding of German euro-politics, while Austrians are miffed at Greece's not reaching (not even close) the agreed financial targets.

Meanwhile again, the Greek Finance Minister hailed Eurostat's downwards review of Greek sovereign debt by +2 extra points as "this confirms what I've been saying all along".
This is outstanding communication tactics -- not because of the originality involved, the Soviets used the same tactics in the 60s -- because of the incredible credulity of the Greek people. Either it is credulity or it is indifference.

The only hope for this country is that a new generation of Greeks breaks away from the reign of the usual oligarchy with its supporting administration, and stops voting for the pompous, expensive, asses that are most Greek politicians. Then things can start to move to a kind of normality, where ministries and gov agencies are really operating...

It doesn't seem likely, unfortunately: the administrative system has collapsed -- or so it seems to those (like myself) who have no notion of how it used to be, say, 25 years ago, when the going was good and things were simpler. When the going gets tough, the difficulties show....
One ministry (finance) cannot come across or get a reply from another (competitiveness). Most of the cross-functional talk is done in corridors, but only ministers (i.e. politicians) walk the corridors, and they know little about their respective ministerial function: in Greece, ministers and their deputies (i.e. cronies) change all the time. Most ministries have no idea what the others are up to. The prime minister is away most of the time, and his deputy doesn't want to delve in details.
Most Greek politicians have never held a job, anyway, they do not know what it is to live in that daily professional routine. Nor do they know what it is to actually achieve something, and how to go about "achieving".

The bottom line may be, although we certainly hope it is not, that it is still business as usual: an expat friend is owed 4k euro as a tax return. His local tax people intimated in so many words that he could receive same, cash in hand, by simply visiting them with advance warning; cost of this service, 400euro.

Monday 15 November 2010

School's out again: Greek municipal elections

...Because that's what these elections are all about, really.

Except for two things, probably known by many but nevertheless confirmed for all:

a) By his own admission, the Greek minister of finance is a failure ("If there were need for new austerity measures, that would mean I've failed". There is a need, so he has failed.)
b) Greek politicians, municipal or other, could not give a damn about their country: while new austerity is in the making, NO GREEK politician has even intimated at Public Sector unemployment (i.e. eliminating useless parts of the public sector -- committees, obscure agencies, 2004 Olympics agencies, etc).

The brunt of the austerity is borne by the private sector -- what little is left of it.

Oh yes, this past weekend the second round of municipal elections was held in many municipalities in Greece.
It was a glorious, sunny week-end in most parts of the country and children & civil servants had no school Friday preceding & Monday following.

Thursday 11 November 2010

It's all about missing school: Municipal elections in Greece.

...Not much else to say, really.

Except that Greeks, such as actually voted (i.e. half the voting population), fell for the socialist PASOK Inc's slogan of, "vote for me -- or suffer a freeze in your accounts".

Following the elections, which are an opportunity for civil servants & teachers in particular to enjoy long weekends, part two of the movie "Greece sovereign debt crisis" is scheduled to hit the screens.

Brace yourselves -- or simply take the first flight out.

Greece's communist regime has had its hey day, it seems.