Eurogroup marathon talks, early Monday morning, 13th July 2015: a tough, humiliating deal for Greece, says a German Newspaper (Bild) for Greece...

Is it?

The good news and the bad news. Reportedly...


No doubt, 6 years of austerity are down the drain as Greece received and spent ±240 bn euro and is still, no further or perhaps even worse off than where it started.

One reason for this apparent standstill was that austerity in the form of cuts in public investment and salary cuts in the public sector and pension cuts, as well as back-breaking increases in income tax brought about a sharp reduction in peoples' spending budget and cut out many organisations' livelihood: the Greek state. And this, in turn, brought about recession.

After 6 years of recession, and five months of an unconventional government by a populist and somewhat totalitarian party, Syriza, Greece is back in recession, and asking for a third bailout.

The pre-conditions of this bailout, should it be accepted, are reportedly tough, humiliating, and threaten to upset the status quo in Greece as Greeks know it.

How bad is it??

How humiliating?

While I don't have the actual text, reportedly it calls for a number of things.

First is the usual fruit of short-sighted governments: even higher taxation - in part in order to compensate for the Greek government's continued refusal to reduce the number of people on its payroll (it has actually added 10,000 civil servants in the 5 months of its governance).
As usual in Greece, some of the measures (e.g. VAT) will hit lower income earners more than others. Typically these are the people least likely to raise a stink, so the motto is, "slam them".

- It does however also include gradual revocation of privileges (not bad), taxation of shipowners (unlikely, unless one can convince them to contribute - which is not a bad idea as they can make a  difference!)
- It also mentions relaxation of labour law restrictions; at the onset, not bad either especially given the ±1.45 mn unemployed in Greece
- There is also mention of liberalisation of closed professions
- Reduction in bureaucracy

...and much of this enacted asap, before bailout talks begin.
Also, reforms will be secured by EU supervision.

I.e. reforms are to be guaranteed in Greece by the Greek government and an EU supervisory team...

Which makes me think of the following positive point:
a foreign "supervisor", who is to blame for everything, is the ideal justification for quick implementation of measures which go against local pressure groups and self-serving political and business oligarchs (union leaders, tycoons, etc): "not my fault, could;t do anything. I'm with you! (Until you die out, hopefully soon...)"

Taking things into our hands... and make miracle happen for someone out there.

An Englishman, Thom Feeney raised ~2 million euro in just over week in a crowd-funding campaign to help Greeks pay back the IMF tranche due last week.
The 2 million came from all over; much from the two countries least likely: Germany and the UK!


Thom said he acted because politicians are delaying on all sides, because Europeans are largely generous people and because the Greek people need help. Since those in power fail to do it, the people have to do it by themselves...

This is what "by the people for the people" mean: "I may not like your politicians (or mine) but I can distinguish between them and you. And in punishing them, I am condemning you -- I don't want that."

Feeney's last point - or the gist of it - is gaining a lot of ground lately. Either that or I am seeing things.

Let's for a moment, assume that it is; what could it mean?

For one, politicians are seen as slow, indecisive, and ineffective. And, more importantly that people can step in. Effectively, bypass politicians and do it yourself.

This is a major change: until now we have people demonstrating in order to draw politicians' attention to their will. Politicians oblige by ignoring everyone until time is ripe for elections; and the sage continued.

Maybe the role of politicians has to change; in many countries politicians are proving poor in addressing everyday problems. They often are less than efficient in the grand scheme of things as well...

Maybe it is the power of the internet in weaving the global community.

I think it is certain that people have come to realise that many of today's politicians fall short as exponents of collective feeling, preferences, and choices.
Politicians' egos play a major role in any negotiating game - sidelining the content of the discussion.

Further, let's think of what our average (european) politician often is: a communicative person - sales rep profile - with a proven background in social speaking or union activism or political involvement as a student. The party then chooses him her to play a leading role - i.e. promotes that person to sales director or CEO position. Then campaign managers and image makers hone the ex sales rep into a product that can sell to the voters.

In other words, the primary skills set required of a politicians is his her capacity to get elected. Then, of course, comes persuasiveness. And then, I presume, comes discipline: i.e. to tow the party line.

None of the above is bad per se and some politicians probably do not fit the stereotype either; but most do. Case in point: in Greece the PM told people that voting "no" to a referendum is equivalent to voting for democracy, voting no to oppression, for self-respect etc. This guideline had nothing to do with the official content of that referendum, but that did not stop politicians from supporting it or criticising it, accordingly. While this is an extreme example of demagogy, similar examples of context and content shifting and communication exploitation  exist elsewhere as well:  just not as exacerbated nor as extreme.


So in the face of this why not do as Thom did: bypass politicians rather than confront them.


It is great to take initiative rather than expect it from others and it is good to have people collectively agree and act together.
The word together gives hope to everyone: I am not alone, I can help another I can make a miracle happen for someone else.

Greece's Referendum: the David Syndrome

Reading about reactions to the results of the (sham) referendum in Greece, I asked myself why is it that Greeks voted the way they did?

I don't mean to pay more than lip service to the political declarations bandied about -- but the real why. Maybe it would be one of the political pronouncements, maybe not. It wasn't.

Thoughts led me to an astounding "aha" moment: in a reductionist, I concur, view of the affair I realise that a large section of the population is in David psychology. That that sizeable section of the population sees the country as a valiant, developing nation and not as what Greece really is: a wealthy country (not so much due to the crisis) part of the EU, member of the eurozone.

The present Greek government feeds this view; maybe its members believe it or maybe they are suffering under the weight of a massive inferiority complex. The fatc of the matter is that Greece is a member of the rich mens' club, and its present government and many of its voters interpret their discontent as the need to assert their existence. Which is not in doubt. This is akin to the thwarted adolescent, looking for his or her path in life...

The signs are there: the need to assert, to say no, to "dare", to "challenge" the "bullies" who are oppressing us", i.e. not sucking up to us or openly saying "I love you".


There are no bullies, so to speak. Greece is a country that belongs to the rich mens' club and, despite all the recession and the austerity, its civil servants are all still there (unlike, say, Romania) and still earn more than they did 15 years ago; it may not be much but it is something.

No, the bullies are inside us.

Let's hope the euro-partners catch on to this, fast.

Greece Referendum: Defiance Aside, What's Next?

Nothing, it would seem.

Greek were asked to vote yes or no to a 47 page document in English, unavailable within the country (and mostly incomprehensible). It was an expired bailout proposal from the Eurogroup. The country's government extolled voters to choose "no" to "oppression" and humiliation and for prosperity, growth, and dignity.

So, people voted NO to regain their dignity, and spearhead growth, prosperity, etc. Except that growth, etc begins with money, apparently, and in Greece's case, other people's money. The lenders would be the EU this time round.

The country's PM, A Tsipras declared on Friday that a "NO" vote leads to an agreement in 48 hrs. The finance minister Y Varoufakis also explained that a deal with the ECB is a simple matter, "can even be conducted via teleconference".

If Greeks have the short memory the ruling party attributes to them, then all is OK. Come Wednesday and still in after glow of defiance, they won't really remember what politicians promised one week before.
If not -- or if someone reminds them (unlikely) -- then the Greek government may have a problem.

While one side (Eurogroup) is expecting initiative from the other side, the other side (Greek government) is basically expecting a move from the other side, just to drive home that Greece now has the upper hand (as promised).

Greece's finance minister (or negotiations minister) Yiannis Varoufakis resigned on Monday morning - reportedly. One never knows, he may un-resign later in the day.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Greek government is purportedly preparing to issue IOU which it will use to pay off its internal creditors.

If it does that, it will be blamed on the Eurogroup.

And yet: Greece's best friends at this moment are its euro-partners. The same people its government has criticised , vilified, and at times, abused.

The Biggest Liability to the Viability of the Greek Economy

The present PM of Greece, A Tsipras, sent a letter to the Eurogroup today asking for a new loan facility from the ECB.

In this letter, Tsipras assures all recipients that the Republic (presumably, the Hellenic Republic) is "...fully committed to service its debt in a manner that ensures the viability of the Greek economy, growth and social cohesion".

Words, and playing with words, as usual.

What he is saying is "I will pay you -- unless of course I see that my growth suffers, or that maybe the viability of the economy suffers (how did it get into this mess in the first place?) or the social cohesion in the country dictates: no repayment ". But don't worry, you're there somewhere in the lower priorities.



The biggest liability to the Greek economy's viability is Mr Tsipras himself. Were he to remove himself and his cronies from power, things would, magically, improve.

The letter: please give me money. If things go right, I might pay you back -- unless, that is...

The Adolescent In Need of Therapy -- Greece's Government Yet Again Blames the Scapegoat

The problem is not with the scapegoat, it is that people listen.



Greece seems to be suffering in the throes of misinformation -- or at least conflicting information. There seems to be a difference between what is happening, what is reported locally and what is understood as happening: it is "the European partners" who are imposing austerity measures (the Greek government proposed the measures) there was an ultimatum (there was none), etc. There are planty of examples of confusing and conflicting information.
With 50% of Greeks only loosely connected to the Net and only an estimated 17% receiving news on-line, it should come as no surprise that confusion is rampant.

Now Greeks are called to vote in a referendum without clarifying the subject of said referendum.

It is loosely referred to as "a resounding no to oppressors" (i.e. down with school, down with teachers!) by sympathisers and "grexit" by the others. Early on Sunday the idea was put forth that it is a referendum on the proposed plan by the Greek government (?). This is 47 pages long and largely incomprehensible.

It is uncanny to ask individuals to vote on a question-mark or on 47 pages of fiscal text (badly written) and unconstitutional in Greece to do so -- but the latter is the least of the Greek government's bother. Constitutionality does not seem to be high on their agenda.


The referendum is essentially bogus and simply an ultimate means of putting pressure on the Eurogroup members.

Of course, it is presented to the public as "confound the oppressors" -- a bit like this sounds like the cry of an emotionally challenged adolescent, revolting against parental authority. And while this may be adequate explanation, it is no comfort: most Greeks do not understand what is going on and the easiest solution is the one that hits home first:
we are trying but it's the other peoples' fault - the Europeans do not want us.


What Greece seems to lack is awareness of itself and responsibility to tackle the situation, one problem at a time.


Greeks are also notoriously misinformed:



Or, Greece's government is simply enjoying the fun: campaigning for "money for nothing and the chicks for free". If it works, it works. If not, who cares, they'll move to Australia -- or buy out the land with their Euros stored in foreign banks in foreign lands.

The ATM in the Greek House of Parliament on Saturday: MP queueing up to draw cash asap!

Understanding Greeks: What is Going On-2 (The Enemy That Lurks On the Outside.)

To a large extent, the comfort for many Greeks contains a scapegoat; now it is the Eurogroup and the Germans.

In years past it was the Americans. Generally speaking. Any demonstration -- many of which took place as a matter of course or tradition, a commuters-annoying fiesta if you will -- would end up at the American embassy.

Of course Greek politicians, probably Europe's most corrupt and ineffectual, need "bad guys" to explain away the dismal situation of their country and its abysmal financial state.


What is the situation at this moment:

1) Greece's government is misinforming the country as to what is going on in the negotiations, trying to support the "bad guys" concept and putting forth the notion that its the bad guys who are imposing austerity that the Greek government is resisting.

2) Some Greeks, (4.5/10) who voted for this fascist - left wing coalition government insist on burying their heads in the ground and looking elsewhere when reality is staring them in the face; they voted for a magic wand that would make everything OK (syriza) and they could start consuming again.

3) The media are between two stools about stating the obvious and reporting reality: they fear
a) a drop in their viewer ratings(because people do not want to be troubled by the truth -- which they know intuitively anyway. Greeks want to shy from the truth.)
b) be labelled the unpatriotic propagandists of foreign powers

4) So, by and large, a large slice of the Greek voting population remains unaware of what is really going on.


Despite all, a demonstration last week labelled gathered thousands "We are European"


So, what is really going on?


AFAI understand:
The lenders have decided to take a hard stance as regards cost cutting by insisting on a positive current account balance. 

This means that the Greek government must either raise its income with increased new taxation (ref, talks about vat, etc) OR reduce spending. The latter is preferable for the future.

The lenders have accepted that the debt (approaching 450bill euro) is not sustainable. It will probably be restructured in the form of a write-off quietly sometime in the future. 


(Greece produces little value adding and the state bureaucracy and the public service agencies inertia  doe not allow for much initiative and change. Spectacular growth figures for the future, needed to service this debt, are not on the visible agenda.)


For the write-off to take place, Greece has to step into the path of sustainable growth. 
I.e. two things have to happen to the satisfaction of lenders (and, largely, to the good of the country): 1) Greece has to show it will not run a similar debt yet again 2) make reforms that testify to its pursuit of more competitive path as a country and ones that will bring it into the 21st century (free investments, allow excellence in education, allow efficiency in medical care, reform closed professions, reduce the abysmally reactionary and huge public sector, maybe even contain corruption).


The present Greek government does not want to reduce its spending because it is afraid of losing its voters. Also, in order to win the elections it promised to do away with austerity - in other words, to give away money. It is also supportive of the civil service and hostile to investment, so it is unsure of how to promote "growth". 

Greek Government organised rallies in favour of the government's efforts are organised in Athens in an effort to give evidence of support and sway European leaders and public opinion.

 
And this is the gist of it. As it trickles down to the negotiations saga:

whenever lenders say, "reduce spending",

the Greek government quietly says:
"how about we agree on implementing equivalent, income-increasing measures? Like say, increase VAT?"

The lenders / Eurogroup probably answers:
"that's not a good idea, that would hit a critical industry, hospitality. Also, increasing vat on drugs would affect the weakest...".

The Greek government comes back home and declares publicly:
"the lenders wish to impose high VAT on us. They are inhuman!"


And the saga lives on


Close to 70% of Greek state spending goes to civil servants' salaries and pensions (early pensions make up 45% of the budget for pension; about 30% of this in the form of subsidies to state owned corporations' special retirement benefits (chiefly PPC & Hellenic Telecom).


The Greek government does not want to reduce spending

Greece Debt Negotiations: What is Going On (the truth)?

The Greek government has stated that it prefers to pay civil servants' salaries rather than pay creditors and avoid bankruptcy.

So, for the sake of 1.4 million (purported) cronies, the Greek government is ready to sacrifice the livelihood of the country's remaining 9 million!!!

This cannot be the opinion of most inhabitants, for sure.

Misinformed they may be-- either by the state controlled propaganda or the misguidance of people who are there to inform the public at large.

A friend said yesterday that the Greek government has yet to submit a valid proposal -- i.e. one that supports the weakest in the country, faces the crisis, contains cost-cutting measures and puts forth growth prospects. This is what the Europartners expect.

Instead, the Greek government's net contribution to the Eurogroup up to now has been to propose tax raises and to oppose, rather than propose: the counter anything and everything that is put on the table. So, the initiative is generally in non-Greek hands, hence (probably) the mailaise and incomprehension of Greece's Europartners.

I received the letter below and am reproducing it as is.

"""As an EU citizen with a family living in Greece, I am one of many inhabitants of the country dismayed by the nature of the negotiations between the Eurogroup and the Greek government – and fearful of the consequences of a misdeal. 

This is a very concerned citizen’s viewpoint.

The humanitarian crisis in Greece is real and real people are suffering. But these people are largely ignored - despite the best efforts of the Euro-Partners so far.

The Greek government argues that there is humanitarian crisis and claims flexibility in negotiations as long as there is a "fair deal". The government says it draws the line on touching "salaries and pensions" and on maintaining past labour law reform.

Salaries and pensions:

* "Salaries" can only refer to the Public Sector i.e., the Greek state payroll. In other words the Greek government's humanitarian concern for not reducing salaries refers to 800,000 - 1,176,000 persons (it is still unclear how many persons are directly & indirectly on the public payroll in Greece). It would seem that the Greek government is prepared to sacrifice a deal with lenders to protect the income of civil servants in the country.

* Salaries in Greece in the period 1997 - 2014 are still up by 7% comparing the two dates (eurostat). So, at least, civil servants, all of whom are still employed, are better off than their unemployed private sector brethren, even after the reductions imposed on their income in 2012-2013;

*Labour law in Greece is restrictive both in flexibility to employment and to redundancies, as well as to temporary placement.
The Greek government proposes to oppose or cancel reforms that have already been implemented, even though these reforms may help make recruitment & job creation easier and more attractive.

The “humanitarian crisis” in Greece:

* Pensions:
We have 4.5 mill pensioners in Greece, 1% are under the age of 25. The highest cost belongs to the 56-65 age brackets. Presently, 51% of new pensioners are in the age bracket 55-61 (Hellenic Stat Service). The monthly median pension is € ~900 and many pensioners who have contributed for decades are now supported by their families.
If further cost-cutting needs to be implemented it could be done selectively rather than across the board: in Greece the catalogues are up to date, so groups enjoying special benefits at the expense of others, or are employable, can be identified.

* Greece does not have a guaranteed minimum income (i.e., allocation universelle or revenue minimum); so, unless privately supported, if you are poor in Greece you will die.
A guaranteed minimum income is not included in the Greek government's humanitarian pursuits.

* Unemployment is ~26%, or close to 1.4 mill persons (Ministry of Labour 1/2015), mostly long-term unemployed. Benefits are only allowed for 12 months. Hence, only around ~10% of unemployed in Greece receive unemployment benefits (figures for 10/2014). The standard monthly unemployment benefit is € 360 and reaches € 540 for families with 5 children.
The nation's unemployed and their survival are not mentioned by the Greek government and do not seem to concern its members.

* Worse: medical cover is unavailable to the unemployed after 24 months. How people survive and their families cope thereafter is anyone's guess. Suffice it to note that children are insured under the parents’ benefits; without the parents insurance, children are uninsured as well.
Helping the unemployed is not part of the Greek government's humanitarian concerns either.

Overall, there is a crisis and there are people who hope for a solution but do not know where it will come from. Many do not know what is going on and when they search for a reason why there is no progress, they are told "it's the others' fault, the IMF, etc." They are assured that, "the government is doing its best to protect the citizens".  Probably, the people who are charged to inform the public are misinformed as well. 

Overall, in its five months in power the current Greek government has reinstated ~2300 civil servants who had been made redundant by the previous government and lowered the standards in secondary education. Nothing else.

The combination of lack of reliable information, misunderstanding, crisis, and the strange attitude of the country's government, spells catastrophe. """

Thus ends the letter. Hopefully not the country.

Be Introspective, then Reflective and then Understand...

In one of the motivational posters I read "you are not where you come from, you are where you're going to...".

Which, snazzy though it may be, raises a fundamental question: do I know where I am going to?

One may argue, of course, that NOT knowing is, in and of itself, a kind of direction to whit, the pursuit of direction.

I wonder how many of us actually do know where they are going -- or do we simply settle for a vague idea, based on what we have around us.

Do we want to know everything about the future?


Or, maybe, "where we are going to" is the journey to know oneself.

If so, all it takes is to reflect upon oneself, to discover, see, accept and move on. The more we know ourselves, the more we know where we are going to? Or, the more we know ourselves, the less important is the goal of defining a specific destination...

Which European Country Has No Guaranteed Minimum Income?

You guessed it: Greece.

Despite the endless (& reckless) spending, Greece's governments have ignored the issue -- nay, Greece's present "left-wing humanistic" government has swepted it off the table.

Indeed, Greece's Syriza party politicians effectively placed the matter in the circular file; for good, they hope.

GREECE'S GOVERNMENT VIEW OF THE COUNTRY'S POOR & UNEMPLOYED

A minister called Fotiou, even went so far as to call it "a poverty trap".
Indeed.

Ms Fotiou she does not need the aid, obviously; with a purported monthly income of EUR ~12k to spend, falling into the "minimum income" for her is a giant step backwards.

For a party that uses "humanistic crisis" as an argument in favour of "money for nothing" in its dealings with the troika (reps of Greece's lenders), it could be astonishing.

It ceases to astonish when one realises that the present party not only could not care less about Greece's poor, it also visibly doesn't bother with the future starving population: long-term unemployed,self-employed out of jobs, etc.


In this light, the fact that 25% of Greece's unemployed also do not have any medical cover probably makes the present ruling party members rejoice.

Paradoxical Collective Behaviour of Greeks Today -- or Why My Dutch Friend Was Wrong

...He rarely is.
Also he is most polite and reserved and rarely judgemental.


What are three strange traits that may confuse us if we travel or live in Greece today.

I don't mean, voting a not-so-complimentary-for-the-country, party to power (rude with a predilection of doing anything that goes against the grain -- any grain, to the extent of proposing to free from prison  a serial killer, for "humanitarian reasons" etc)


A) being rude = being assertive



B) being antisocial & unhelpful = being free
Example: a bunch of trouble-makers are allowed to demonstrate to the detriment of the community, block the highway, or forbid entry to cruise-ships; the community, the country as a whole suffers. Likewise,

C) being polite to a stranger = servility


What else can one say other than, offer Greece group therapy and send them the bill  (because psychoanalysis needs commitment).

Sullen, Disgruntled and Resentful

... is how a Dutch person living in Greece described the country's ruling party's so called "extreme left-wing" politicians.

Like typical bullies,indignant because they have not had their way; "just imagine" he said, "imagine you give the bullies the power and the responsibilities of the school principal"! This is surely how they wil behave."

He proffered the example of  the minister for education who publicly stated that the pursuit of excellence (and progress) is a sickness. Again, in the same ministry, the minister appointed new regional educational supervisors, all from the party (syriza). Other ministers declare "... we will tear Europe to bits..." and "jihad is not to be excluded if they (european partners) do not do what we want...".

If this is really the case, and Greece's ruling people are a pack of disgruntled, self-serving bullies,  Greece is in urgent need of a few very dynamic parents who can bring these bullies to order.

Or the will sink the ship further, beyond salvation.